Pair #8225

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 898559

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

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Rules

If Marco Penge wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-MAP

The Masters: Will Marco Penge finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 2810

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:28:16Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters means finishing 1st, which is necessarily within the top 5. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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