Pair #8217

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RHOJ

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 704

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rasmus Hojgaard wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-RHOJ

Will Rasmus Hojgaard lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 14579

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 0.9930
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rasmus Hojgaard is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:28:16Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require leading after Round 1 of the Masters (could win a different major, or win the Masters without leading R1). Leading R1 at the Masters does not imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -4.28% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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