Pair #8216

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RHOJ

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 704

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rasmus Hojgaard wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-RAH

The Masters: Will Rasmus Hojgaard finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 3828

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rasmus Hojgaard finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:28:16Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could be at any of the four majors, not necessarily the Masters. If Hojgaard wins a different major, the Masters top 20 market is independent. And finishing top 20 at the Masters does not imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -4.28% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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