Pair #8212

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-CSCH

Will Charl Schwartzel win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Charl Schwartzel
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 171857

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

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Rules

If Charl Schwartzel wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-CHS

The Masters: Will Charl Schwartzel finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Charl Schwartzel
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 207

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Charl Schwartzel finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:27:58Z

Reasoning: If Schwartzel wins the Masters, he finishes 1st, which is necessarily within the top 5. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 5 does not mean winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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