Pair #8209

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-MAST26-APOT

Will Aldrich Potgieter lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Aldrich Potgieter
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 3636

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aldrich Potgieter is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-APOT

The Masters: Will Aldrich Potgieter make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Aldrich Potgieter
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 11760

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aldrich Potgieter has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:27:58Z

Reasoning: If Potgieter leads at the end of Round 2, he is still in the tournament and has made the cut (the cut is made after Round 2). The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee leading after Round 2.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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