Pair #8207

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-ALP

The Masters: Will Aldrich Potgieter finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Aldrich Potgieter
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 13068

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Aldrich Potgieter finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-APOT

The Masters: Will Aldrich Potgieter make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Aldrich Potgieter
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 11760

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Aldrich Potgieter has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:27:58Z

Reasoning: If Potgieter finishes in the top 20, he must have made the cut to compete in the final rounds. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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