Pair #8191

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-ANOV

Will Andrew Novak win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Andrew Novak
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 611159

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

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Rules

If Andrew Novak wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-ANN

The Masters: Will Andrew Novak finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Andrew Novak
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 3028

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Andrew Novak finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:27:37Z

Reasoning: If Andrew Novak wins the Masters, he finishes 1st, which is necessarily within the top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply a win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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