Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOUR-MAST26-HLI
Will Hao-Tong Li win the Masters Tournament?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Hao-Tong Li
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 6135375
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 0.9920
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Hao-Tong Li wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26APAC-HLI
Will Hao-Tong Li finish as the top Asian/Oceanic golfer in the tournament?
Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Hao-Tong Li
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 13687
YES ask: 0.3700
NO ask: 0.6700
Last: 0.3600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Hao-Tong Li records the lowest total strokes among all Asian/Oceanic golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:27:19Z
Reasoning: If Hao-Tong Li wins the Masters (lowest total strokes overall), he must have the lowest total strokes among Asian/Oceanic golfers as a subset. Winning the tournament logically implies being the top finisher in any regional subgroup.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.3620
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A