Pair #8181

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-HLI

Will Hao-Tong Li win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Hao-Tong Li
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 6135375

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 0.9920
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hao-Tong Li wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26APAC-HLI

Will Hao-Tong Li finish as the top Asian/Oceanic golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Hao-Tong Li
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 13687

YES ask: 0.3700
NO ask: 0.6700
Last: 0.3600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hao-Tong Li records the lowest total strokes among all Asian/Oceanic golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:27:19Z

Reasoning: If Hao-Tong Li wins the Masters (lowest total strokes overall), he must have the lowest total strokes among Asian/Oceanic golfers as a subset. Winning the tournament logically implies being the top finisher in any regional subgroup.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3620
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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