Pair #8176

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-SAS

The Masters: Will Sam Stevens finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Sam Stevens
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1216

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sam Stevens finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-SAS

The Masters: Will Sam Stevens finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sam Stevens
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 22978

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sam Stevens finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:26:57Z

Reasoning: If Sam Stevens finishes top 5, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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