Pair #8172

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-SAS

The Masters: Will Sam Stevens finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Sam Stevens
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 12687

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sam Stevens finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-SAS

The Masters: Will Sam Stevens finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sam Stevens
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 22978

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sam Stevens finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:26:57Z

Reasoning: If Sam Stevens finishes top 10, he necessarily also finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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