Pair #8166

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-SGAR

Will Sergio Garcia win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Sergio Garcia
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 787417

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

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Rules

If Sergio Garcia wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-SGAR

The Masters: Will Sergio Garcia make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Sergio Garcia
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 13056

YES ask: 0.8500
NO ask: 0.2000
Last: 0.8100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sergio Garcia has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:26:38Z

Reasoning: If Sergio Garcia wins the Masters, he necessarily made the cut (you cannot win without completing all four rounds). The reverse is not true — making the cut does not guarantee winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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