Pair #8160

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-JAD

The Masters: Will Jason Day finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 44154

YES ask: 0.4300
NO ask: 0.5900
Last: 0.4300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jason Day finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-JAD

The Masters: Will Jason Day finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 42152

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.0600
Last: 0.9400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jason Day finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:26:38Z

Reasoning: If Jason Day finishes top 5, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse is not true — top 20 does not guarantee top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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