Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-VAC26-KROY
Valspar Championship: Will Kevin Roy finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Kevin Roy
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1362
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Kevin Roy finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VAC26-KROY
Valspar Championship: Will Kevin Roy finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Kevin Roy
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12008
YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Kevin Roy finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:09:56Z
Reasoning: A top-10 finish is a subset of top-20, so finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20. The reverse does not hold.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0700
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A