Pair #8155

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-JAD

The Masters: Will Jason Day finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 52451

YES ask: 0.7400
NO ask: 0.2700
Last: 0.7400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jason Day finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-JAD

The Masters: Will Jason Day finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 42152

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.0600
Last: 0.9400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jason Day finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:26:38Z

Reasoning: If Jason Day finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20 as well. The reverse is not true — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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