Pair #8154

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JDAY

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2460

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jason Day wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26APAC-JDAY

Will Jason Day finish as the top Asian/Oceanic golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 15650

YES ask: 0.6400
NO ask: 0.3700
Last: 0.6400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jason Day records the lowest total strokes among all Asian/Oceanic golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:26:21Z

Reasoning: Day could win a different major without being the top APAC golfer at the Masters. And being the top APAC golfer at the Masters does not require winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -56.25% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6200
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -60.53% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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