Pair #8153

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JDAY

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2460

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0700

Rules

If Jason Day wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-JAD

The Masters: Will Jason Day finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 44154

YES ask: 0.4300
NO ask: 0.5900
Last: 0.4300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jason Day finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:26:21Z

Reasoning: Day could win a different major (PGA Championship, US Open, The Open) without finishing top 5 at the Masters. And finishing top 5 at the Masters does not mean winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -44.50% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4100
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -48.78% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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