Pair #8152

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JDAY

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2460

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jason Day wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-JDAY

Will Jason Day lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 180691

YES ask: 0.0130
NO ask: 0.9890
Last: 0.0130

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jason Day is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:26:21Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require leading Round 1 of the Masters, and leading Round 1 of the Masters does not necessitate winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 1.21% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9930
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -3.07% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue