Pair #8151

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JDAY

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2460

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0700

Rules

If Jason Day wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-JAD

The Masters: Will Jason Day finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 42152

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.0600
Last: 0.9400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jason Day finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:26:21Z

Reasoning: Day could win a different major without finishing top 20 at the Masters. And finishing top 20 at the Masters does not mean winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -67.42% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9300
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -71.70% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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