Pair #8150

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JDAY

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2460

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jason Day wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-JAD

The Masters: Will Jason Day finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 52451

YES ask: 0.7400
NO ask: 0.2700
Last: 0.7400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jason Day finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:26:21Z

Reasoning: Day could win a different major (PGA Championship, US Open, The Open) without finishing top 10 at the Masters. And finishing top 10 at the Masters does not mean winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -60.35% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7200
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -64.63% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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