Pair #8149

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JDAY

Will Jason Day win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 5591033

YES ask: 0.0330
NO ask: 0.9690
Last: 0.0330

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Rules

If Jason Day wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26APAC-JDAY

Will Jason Day finish as the top Asian/Oceanic golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 15650

YES ask: 0.6400
NO ask: 0.3700
Last: 0.6400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jason Day records the lowest total strokes among all Asian/Oceanic golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:26:21Z

Reasoning: If Jason Day wins the Masters (lowest score overall), he must also have the lowest score among the subset of Asian/Oceanic golfers. The reverse does not hold — he could be best among APAC golfers without winning the whole tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6090
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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