Pair #8144

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-JAB

The Masters: Will Jacob Bridgeman finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 35748

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jacob Bridgeman finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-JBRI

The Masters: Will Jacob Bridgeman make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 34578

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.1000
Last: 0.9100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jacob Bridgeman has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:26:21Z

Reasoning: If Bridgeman finishes top 5, he must have made the cut to complete all four rounds. However, making the cut does not necessitate finishing top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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