Pair #8141

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-JAB

The Masters: Will Jacob Bridgeman finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 35748

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jacob Bridgeman finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-JAB

The Masters: Will Jacob Bridgeman finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 116606

YES ask: 0.3600
NO ask: 0.6600
Last: 0.3600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jacob Bridgeman finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:26:01Z

Reasoning: If Bridgeman finishes top 5, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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