Pair #8132

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-JBRI

Will Jacob Bridgeman lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 243499

YES ask: 0.0150
NO ask: 0.9860
Last: 0.0150

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jacob Bridgeman is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-JBRI

The Masters: Will Jacob Bridgeman finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 599

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jacob Bridgeman finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:26:01Z

Reasoning: If Bridgeman leads after Round 1, he is by definition in the top 5 (top 1 is within top 5). However, being top 5 in Round 1 does not imply leading — he could be tied 2nd through 5th.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0660
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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