Pair #8129

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JBRI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1335

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jacob Bridgeman wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-JAB

The Masters: Will Jacob Bridgeman finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 35748

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jacob Bridgeman finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:25:40Z

Reasoning: Winning a 2026 major could be at a tournament other than the Masters, so a Masters top-5 finish is not necessarily implied. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -4.28% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue