Pair #8128

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JBRI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1335

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jacob Bridgeman wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-JBRI

The Masters: Will Jacob Bridgeman make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 34578

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.1000
Last: 0.9100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jacob Bridgeman has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:25:40Z

Reasoning: Winning a 2026 major could be at a different major than the Masters, so making the cut at the Masters is not necessarily implied. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -67.59% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9300
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -71.87% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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