Pair #8127

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JBRI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1335

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jacob Bridgeman wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-JBRI

Will Jacob Bridgeman lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 243499

YES ask: 0.0150
NO ask: 0.9860
Last: 0.0150

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jacob Bridgeman is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:25:40Z

Reasoning: Winning a 2026 major could occur at a tournament other than the Masters, and even winning the Masters doesn't require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.86% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9950
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -3.42% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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