Pair #8126

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JBRI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1335

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jacob Bridgeman wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-JAB

The Masters: Will Jacob Bridgeman finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 62747

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jacob Bridgeman finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:25:40Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could be at PGA Championship, US Open, or The Open — not necessarily the Masters. So a Masters top-10 is not implied. And top-10 at Masters doesn't imply winning a major. No logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -7.98% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0500
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -12.27% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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