Pair #8125

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JBRI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1335

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jacob Bridgeman wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-JBRI

The Masters: Will Jacob Bridgeman finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 599

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jacob Bridgeman finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:25:40Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could be at a different major (not the Masters), and even winning the Masters doesn't require a top-5 Round 1. Finishing top 5 in Round 1 of the Masters doesn't imply winning a major. No logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -10.04% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -14.35% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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