Pair #8121

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JBRI

Will Jacob Bridgeman win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 5694716

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

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Rules

If Jacob Bridgeman wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-JAB

The Masters: Will Jacob Bridgeman finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 62747

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jacob Bridgeman finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:25:40Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters means finishing 1st, which is necessarily top 10. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 10 does not mean winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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