Pair #8118

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-PAC

The Masters: Will Patrick Cantlay finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 8528

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Patrick Cantlay finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-PAC

The Masters: Will Patrick Cantlay finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 61061

YES ask: 0.8400
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Patrick Cantlay finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:25:20Z

Reasoning: A top 5 finish is necessarily also a top 20 finish. The reverse does not hold — finishing between 6th and 20th is top 20 but not top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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