Pair #8113

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PCAN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3919

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-PAC

The Masters: Will Patrick Cantlay finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 8528

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:25:20Z

Reasoning: Cantlay could win a major other than the Masters and finish outside the top 5 at the Masters. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -21.30% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1500
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -25.58% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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