Pair #8112

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PCAN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3919

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-PCAN

Will Patrick Cantlay lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 49260

YES ask: 0.0160
NO ask: 0.9860
Last: 0.0160

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:25:20Z

Reasoning: No logical connection: winning a major does not require leading Round 1 of the Masters, and leading Round 1 does not imply winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 2.45% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9860
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -1.84% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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