Pair #8110

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PCAN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3919

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-PAC

The Masters: Will Patrick Cantlay finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 11512

YES ask: 0.5100
NO ask: 0.5000
Last: 0.5100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:25:20Z

Reasoning: Cantlay could win a major other than the Masters (e.g., PGA Championship), so winning a major does not necessitate a top 10 at the Masters. And top 10 at the Masters does not mean he won a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -48.76% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4800
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -53.04% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue