Pair #8106

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-PCAN

Will Patrick Cantlay win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 3690723

YES ask: 0.0060
NO ask: 0.9960
Last: 0.0060

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Patrick Cantlay wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-PAC

The Masters: Will Patrick Cantlay finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 11512

YES ask: 0.5100
NO ask: 0.5000
Last: 0.5100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Patrick Cantlay finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:25:03Z

Reasoning: If Patrick Cantlay wins the Masters, he necessarily finishes in the top 10 (in fact, top 1). The reverse is not true — finishing top 10 does not mean he won.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5060
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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