Pair #8104

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-JTHO

Masters Tournament: Will Justin Thomas finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 13566

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-JTHO

The Masters: Will Justin Thomas make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 9452

YES ask: 0.9300
NO ask: 0.0800
Last: 0.9200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:25:03Z

Reasoning: If Justin Thomas finishes top 5 at the Masters, he must have made the cut. The reverse is not true — making the cut does not guarantee a top 5 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue