Pair #8100

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-JTHO

Masters Tournament: Will Justin Thomas finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 46212

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-JTHO

The Masters: Will Justin Thomas make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 9452

YES ask: 0.9300
NO ask: 0.0800
Last: 0.9200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:25:03Z

Reasoning: If Justin Thomas finishes top 20 at the Masters, he must have made the cut (you cannot finish in the top 20 without surviving the cut). The reverse is not true — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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