Pair #8098

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JTHO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3262

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-JTHO

The Masters: Will Justin Thomas make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 9452

YES ask: 0.9300
NO ask: 0.0800
Last: 0.9200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:25:03Z

Reasoning: Winning a major could be at a different major (not the Masters), so it doesn't necessitate making the cut at the Masters. Making the cut at the Masters doesn't imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -66.10% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8800
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -70.38% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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