Pair #8097

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JTHO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3262

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-JTHO

Will Justin Thomas lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 249691

YES ask: 0.0160
NO ask: 0.9870
Last: 0.0160

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:25:03Z

Reasoning: Winning a major does not require leading after Round 1 at the Masters (could win a different major, or win the Masters without leading R1). Leading after R1 at the Masters does not imply winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 6.08% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9660
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +1.80% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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