Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JTHO
All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Justin Thomas finish top 10?
Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2972
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Justin Thomas finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-JTHO
The Masters: Will Justin Thomas make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 9452
YES ask: 0.9300
NO ask: 0.0800
Last: 0.9200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Justin Thomas has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:25:03Z
Reasoning: If Justin Thomas finishes top 10 in all 4 majors including the Masters, he must have made the cut at the Masters. However, making the cut does not guarantee a top 10 finish in all 4 majors.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-98.73%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.9300
Days to maturity:
55
Hurdle yield:
4.21%
Excess yield:
-102.94%
BELOW HURDLE