Pair #8096

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JTHO

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Justin Thomas finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2972

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-JTHO

The Masters: Will Justin Thomas make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 9452

YES ask: 0.9300
NO ask: 0.0800
Last: 0.9200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:25:03Z

Reasoning: If Justin Thomas finishes top 10 in all 4 majors including the Masters, he must have made the cut at the Masters. However, making the cut does not guarantee a top 10 finish in all 4 majors.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -98.73% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9300
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -102.94% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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