Pair #8091

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SBUR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8708

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-SBUR

Will Sam Burns lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 131814

YES ask: 0.0130
NO ask: 0.9880
Last: 0.0130

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:24:45Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could occur at a tournament other than the Masters, and leading Round 1 at the Masters does not guarantee winning any major. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 1.21% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9930
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -3.08% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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