Pair #8090

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SBUR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8708

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0900

Rules

If Sam Burns wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-SAB

The Masters: Will Sam Burns finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 49248

YES ask: 0.8800
NO ask: 0.1400
Last: 0.8600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sam Burns finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:24:45Z

Reasoning: Burns could win a major other than the Masters (PGA Championship, U.S. Open, The Open) and still not finish top 10 at the Masters. And finishing top 10 at the Masters does not mean he wins any major. No necessary implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -65.47% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8600
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -69.75% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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