Pair #809

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-ANOV

Valspar Championship: Will Andrew Novak finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Andrew Novak
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 16349

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Andrew Novak finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-ANOV

Will Andrew Novak win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Andrew Novak
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 611159

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Andrew Novak wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:09:56Z

Reasoning: These are two entirely different tournaments. A top-20 finish at the Valspar has no logical connection to winning the Masters, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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