Pair #8088

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-SBUR

Will Sam Burns win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 10261431

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1200

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Rules

If Sam Burns wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-SAB

The Masters: Will Sam Burns finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 49248

YES ask: 0.8800
NO ask: 0.1400
Last: 0.8600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sam Burns finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:24:45Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters means Burns finishes 1st, which is necessarily within the top 10. The reverse does not hold — he could finish top 10 without winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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