Pair #8080

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MMCN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2833

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-MMCN

Will Maverick McNealy lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 77185

YES ask: 0.0180
NO ask: 0.9850
Last: 0.0180

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:24:27Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require leading after Round 1 of the Masters, and leading after Round 1 of the Masters does not imply winning any major. No logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 2.08% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9880
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -2.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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