Pair #808

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-ANOV

Will Andrew Novak lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Andrew Novak
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7794

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Andrew Novak is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-ANOV

Valspar Championship: Will Andrew Novak finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Andrew Novak
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 16349

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Andrew Novak finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:09:56Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not imply a top-20 finish (could fade), and a top-20 finish does not imply leading after Round 1 (could start poorly and recover). No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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