Pair #8079

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MMCN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2833

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-MAM

The Masters: Will Maverick McNealy finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 42684

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:24:27Z

Reasoning: McNealy could win a different major (not the Masters), so winning a 2026 major does not necessitate a top-20 Masters finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -7.98% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0500
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -12.27% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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