Pair #8078

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MMCN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2833

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-MAM

The Masters: Will Maverick McNealy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 13032

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:24:27Z

Reasoning: McNealy could win a major other than the Masters (PGA Championship, U.S. Open, or The Open Championship), so winning a major in 2026 does not imply a top-10 Masters finish. And a top-10 Masters finish does not imply winning any major. No logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 3.52% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9800
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -0.76% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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