Pair #8069

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-ABHA

Will Akshay Bhatia lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 522075

YES ask: 0.0230
NO ask: 0.9780
Last: 0.0230

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Akshay Bhatia is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-ABHA

The Masters: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4989

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Akshay Bhatia finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:24:07Z

Reasoning: If Bhatia leads after Round 1, he is necessarily in the top 10 (indeed top 1) after Round 1. The reverse does not hold — being top 10 in Round 1 does not mean he leads.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2080
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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