Pair #806

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-PMAL

Valspar Championship: Will Peter Malnati finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Peter Malnati
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1342

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Peter Malnati finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-PMAL

Valspar Championship: Will Peter Malnati finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Peter Malnati
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2984

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Peter Malnati finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:09:56Z

Reasoning: A top-10 finish is a subset of top-20, so finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20. The reverse does not hold: a top-20 finish need not be top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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