Pair #8058

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-ABHA

The Masters: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 568

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-ABHA

The Masters: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4989

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:23:47Z

Reasoning: If Akshay Bhatia finishes in the top 5 in Round 1, he is necessarily also in the top 10 in Round 1 (top 5 is a subset of top 10). The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not require top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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